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Baseball Mogul Rewrites The Record Books
Updated March 24, 2006
Using the Baseball Mogul physics engine, we have adjusted the statistics of the last 20 years to those that we believe would have occurred without the use of steroids by major league hitters. In making these adjustments we have followed the general consensus of media and researchers who believe that steroid use became a measurable concern in the mid-1980s, and that the effects of steroids reached a peak between 1998 and 2004.
Career Home Run Leaders
(Historical)
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Career Home Run Leaders
(Steroid-Free)
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Rank |
Player |
HR |
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Rank |
Player |
HR |
1 |
Hank Aaron |
755 |
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1 |
Hank Aaron |
755 |
2 |
Babe Ruth |
714 |
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2 |
Babe Ruth |
714 |
3 |
Barry Bonds |
708 |
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3 |
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668 |
4 |
Willie Mays |
660 |
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4 |
Willie Mays |
660 |
5 |
Sammy Sosa |
588 |
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5 |
Frank Robinson |
586 |
6 |
Frank Robinson |
586 |
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6 |
Harmon Killebrew |
573 |
7 |
Mark McGwire |
583 |
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7 |
Reggie Jackson |
563 |
8 |
Harmon Killebrew |
573 |
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8 |
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555 |
9 |
Rafael Palemeiro |
569 |
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9 |
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549 |
10 |
Reggie Jackson |
563 |
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10 |
Mike Schmidt |
548 |
11 |
Mike Schmidt |
548 |
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11 |
Mickey Mantle |
536 |
12 |
Mickey Mantle |
536 |
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12 |
Jimmy Foxx |
534 |
13 |
Jimmy Foxx |
534 |
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13 |
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530 |
14 |
Willie McCovey |
521 |
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14 |
Willie McCovey |
521 |
15 |
Ted Williams |
521 |
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15 |
Ted Williams |
521 |
16 |
Ernie Banks |
512 |
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16 |
Ernie Banks |
512 |
17 |
Eddie Matthews |
512 |
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17 |
Eddie Matthews |
512 |
18 |
Mel Ott |
511 |
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18 |
Mel Ott |
511 |
19 |
Eddie Murray |
504 |
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19 |
Eddie Murray |
504 |
20 |
Ken Griffey Jr. |
501 |
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20 |
Lou Gehrig |
493 |
Single-Season Home Run Leaders
(Historical) |
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Single-Season Home Run Leaders
(Steroid-Free)
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Rank |
Player (Year) |
HR |
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Rank |
Player (Year) |
HR |
1 |
Barry Bonds (2001) |
73 |
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1 |
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64 |
2 |
Mark McGwire (1998) |
70 |
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2 |
Roger Maris (1961) |
61 |
3 |
Sammy Sosa (1998) |
66 |
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3 |
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61 |
4 |
Mark McGwire (1999) |
64 |
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4 |
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61 |
5 |
Sammy Sosa (2001) |
64 |
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5 |
Babe Ruth (1927) |
60 |
6 |
Sammy Sosa (1999) |
63 |
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6 |
Babe Ruth (1921) |
59 |
7 |
Roger Maris (1961) |
61 |
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7 |
Jimmy Foxx (1932) |
58 |
8 |
Babe Ruth (1927) |
60 |
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8 |
Hank Greenberg (1938) |
58 |
9 |
Babe Ruth (1921) |
59 |
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9 |
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58 |
10 |
Jimmie Foxx (1932) |
58 |
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10 |
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58 |
11 |
Hank Greenberg (1938) |
58 |
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11 |
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57 |
12 |
Mark McGwire (1997) |
58 |
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12 |
Hack Wilson (1930) |
56 |
13 |
Luis Gonzalez (2001) |
57 |
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13 |
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55 |
14 |
Alex Rodriguez (2002) |
57 |
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14 |
Babe Ruth (1920) |
54 |
15 |
Hack Wilson (1930) |
56 |
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15 |
Ralph Kiner (1949) |
54 |
16 |
Ken Griffey Jr. (1997) |
56 |
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16 |
Mickey Mantle (1961) |
54 |
17 |
Ken Griffey Jr. (1998) |
56 |
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17 |
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53 |
18 |
Ralph Kiner (1949) |
54 |
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18 |
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53 |
19 |
Mickey Mantle (1961) |
54 |
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19 |
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52 |
20 |
Babe Ruth (1920) |
54 |
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20 |
George Foster (1977) |
52 |
Adjusted players shown in bold (click on player name to see adjusted career stats)
Source: Baseball Mogul 2007
NOTES
We did not assume steroid use on the part of any individual player. Because we are not judging the guilt or innocence of individual players, we have instead adjusted all player statistics since 1985.
Greater adjustments have been applied:
- In seasons where a large number of home runs were hit, implying a larger steroid-related effect.
- In seasons where a player's home run rate rose greatly from his previously established career average.
There is no general agreement on whether steroids increase injuries or promote healing (or both). Therefore, games played and plate appearances were unchanged.
If it becomes clear that certain players did use steroids while others did not, the home run numbers for steroid-users would need to be adjusted further downward, while those for the clean players would be reverted to their historical figures.
Download and view the steroid-adjusted database (readable by Baseball Mogul 2006 or later).
Steroid-Adjustment FAQ
Q: If Barry Bonds holds the real-life single-season home run record (with 73 in 2001), why does Mark McGwire hold the "steroid-free" single-season home run record?
A: Mark McGwire had a greater established level of "home runs per at bat" before his record-breaking 1998 season, including a 49-homer season in his rookie year. By contrast, Barry Bonds' 73-homer year was a greater deviation from his established performance level. The Baseball Mogul engine separates each player's ability into natural "power hitting" and that which may have been augmented by performance-enhancing drugs.
Again, we are not surmising the guilt or innocence of Mr. McGwire or Mr. Bonds. We are simply using the Baseball Mogul statistical and physics engines to "replay" the last 20 years without the estimated effects of steroids on baseball as a whole. However, within that context, it is reasonable to assume that the effects of steroids would be most salient in seasons with high slugging totals, and in seasons where a player's power-hitting deviated significantly from his career average to date.
Q: Were stats other than home runs affected by eliminating steroids from baseball?
A: Yes, all stats since 1985 were adjusted as part of this analysis. To see a player's entire career in this alternate baseball universe, click on a name in the "steroid-free" list.
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