2008 Mid-Season Predictions
June 29, 2008
As of today, the average Major League team has played exactly 81 games. We are officially at the halfway point. For about an hour last night, the Tampa Bay Rays had the best record in baseball! Are they for real? What about the Cubs, White Sox and other division leaders? Using Baseball Mogul 2009, we updated our database to reflect current records and injuries, and simulated the second half of the season one thousand times. Here are our predictions. 'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.
| AL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Boston | 95 | 67 | -- | 22.8% |
| Tampa Bay | 92 | 70 | 3 | 12.6% |
| New York | 90 | 72 | 5 | 4.3% |
| Toronto | 80 | 82 | 15 | 0.4% |
| Baltimore | 74 | 88 | 21 | 0.0% |
The Red Sox will probably win the division, and have a good chance at repeating as World Champions. But the Rays should keep it close, and the Yankees will probably play well in the 2nd half, even with Wang on the DL.
| AL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Chicago | 84 | 78 | -- | 1.9% |
| Minnesota | 84 | 78 | -- | 1.7% |
| Detroit | 82 | 80 | 2.0 | 1.5% |
| Cleveland | 78 | 84 | 6.0 | 0.3% |
| Kansas City | 73 | 89 | 11.0 | 0.0% |
The tightest division in baseball. Even the Royals have an outside chance to win the division.
| AL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Los Angeles | 91 | 71 | -- | 5.1% |
| Oakland | 85 | 77 | 6.0 | 0.8% |
| Texas | 76 | 86 | 15.0 | 0.1% |
| Seattle | 71 | 89 | 20.0 | 0.0% |
The Angels should be able to stay atop the AL West. It looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for another year.
| NL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| New York | 89 | 73 | -- | 14.1% |
| Philadelphia | 87 | 75 | 2.0 | 7.8% |
| Atlanta | 82 | 80 | 7.0 | 1.1% |
| Florida | 73 | 89 | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Washington | 66 | 96 | 23.0 | 0.0% |
The Mets have a good team, even with Pedro injured. They should be able to pull ahead of the Phillies and undo last year's collapse.
| NL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Chicago | 90 | 72 | -- | 8.4% |
| Milwaukee | 86 | 76 | 4.0 | 1.4% |
| St. Louis | 86 | 76 | 4.0 | 1.3% |
| Pittsburgh | 77 | 87 | 13.0 | 0.1% |
| Houston | 76 | 86 | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Cincinnati | 75 | 87 | 15.0 | 0.0% |
With 7 teams projected for between 86 and 90 wins, the National League should have a tight and exciting playoff race -- including a Wild Card that goes down to the wire.
| NL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Arizona | 88 | 74 | -- | 10.3% |
| Los Angeles | 86 | 76 | 2.0 | 3.5% |
| Colorado | 72 | 90 | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| San Diego | 71 | 91 | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| San Francisco | 70 | 92 | 18.0 | 0.0% |
The Rockies won't repeat as NL Champs. But the Dodgers and Diamondbacks each have a decent shot at a return trip to the World Series.
Note: The Single-Season Simulator feature in Baseball Mogul 2009 was used, without any special programming, to produce the above results. For more on using Baseball Mogul to simulate Major League Baseball, or to create your own baseball universe, try visiting the Baseball Mogul Forums.